Final Champions League spot could be decided by play-off as unthinkable scenario unfolds

Bournemouth's point against Manchester City on Tuesday night means it is now entirely possible that fifth place in the Premier League could be decided by a play-off game.

The Cherries held City to a 1-1 draw at the Vitality Stadium to confirm Arsenal as champions for the first time since 2004, leaving City four points behind with only a game left to play.

But as everyone associated with Arsenal celebrated, and City fans mourned losing both the title and seemingly Pep Guardiola, it quickly emerged that there was another huge implication to the result on the south coast.

The point for Bournemouth leaves them three behind Liverpool in the race for the fifth and final Champions League spot, needing to beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on Sunday and have Liverpool lose at home to Brentford.

It's not exactly an unthinkable scenario given the team's respective form - Liverpool have taken only one point from their last three games, while Bournemouth have won three and drawn two of their last five and were only denied a win against City by a 95th-minute equaliser by Erling Haaland.

The Reds' do have a significant goal difference advance, however, +10 to Bournemouth's +4, and have also scored five more than the Cherries, putting them firmly in the driving seat with effectively a seven-goal swing needed to deny them. To put it into perspective, a 4-0 win for Bournemouth and 2-0 defeat for Liverpool would still see Arne Slot's side hold on to fifth.

But, as spotted by Michael Reid, Opta's Football Editor, on X, if Bournemouth were to win 5-0 and Liverpool lose 1-0, that would leave the two teams level on points, goal difference and goals scored.

It would then go to points in the two head-to-heads between the teams - again, they are equal having each one their home games - and then away goals scored. Amazingly, that still would not separate the teams, with Liverpool winning their home game 4-2 and Bournemouth winning theirs 3-2.

It means a play-off is an unlikely but still very real possibility going into the final day of the Premier League on Sunday, with Reid even highlighting that Bournemouth even beat Forest by the exact 5-0 scoreline required last season.

So... I think that if Bournemouth beat Forest 5-0 and Liverpool lose 1-0 to Brentford, it goes to a play-off for 5th... pic.twitter.com/WZiX9vprg6

— Michael Reid (@michael_reid11) May 19, 2026

Liverpool could yet sack Arne Slot

As unlikely as the scenario may be, the very fact it's being discussed is a sign of how much Liverpool have under-achieved this season.

The Reds have won just 17 of their 37 league games, losing 12, and failing to progress beyond the quarter-final stage of either of the domestic cups or the Champions League.

Despite that, it has been consistently reported that FSG are not considering a replacement for Slot, with Xabi Alonso allowed to join Chelsea, but a 4-2 defeat to Aston Villa and not-too-subtle criticism of Slot from Mohamed Salah on social media has led to claims that Liverpool could yet change managers this summer, with four alternatives said to be under consideration.

If Bournemouth somehow pull off a miracle and manage to beat the Reds to fifth place, the pressure on Slot is hardly likely to decrease.