Manchester City have been warned that a record-breaking points deduction would be “logical” if they are found guilty in their 115-charge Financial Fair Play case.
Since early 2023, City have faced several serious accusation of financial mismanagement, with the Premier League accusing the club of breaching Financial Fair Play rules at least 115 times.
The club strenuously deny all the charges, leading to a lengthy legal investigation following the accusations, with an independent hearing into the matter concluding late in 2024.
Since then, a verdict is yet to be delivered, as City fans nervously await a decision which could have a significant impact on the future of the club.
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And, according to Football finance expert Kieran Maguire, the punishment City could face if they are found guilty truly is severe, and could come in the form of a record 60 point deduction.
As it stands, it is unclear exactly when we can expect to hear the verdict on City's charges will be revealed, but Maguire has suggested that it almost certainly will arrive in the coming months.
Speaking on The Overlap, Maguire explained why the process has taken so long and how timing has become so important: “We reckon there's probably about half a million pieces of evidence that were presented by both the prosecution and the defence.
"The hearing finished in the second week of December. So we're now 14 months with silence. So by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we're we're probably into the final reaches of getting a decision.
"I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgment. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult. So that's delayed the case."
Maguire added that it is expected that it will still take a few months for the matter to be resolved as all evidence must be carefully considered and refused to rule out the 'catastrophic' possibility of a verdict being announced during the final week of the season or during the World Cup.
When asked the potential punishments that City could face and how this would be decided, Maguire added: “We have got well over 115 charges so what happens if it is 70-50 in terms of favour to the Premier League or favour of Manchester City?
"If Manchester City are found guilty of non-cooperation, which is fairly likely, they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there. If it’s a points deduction, I think the Premier League will claim it as a victory.”
It has previously been speculated that Manchester City could face expulsion from the Premier League down to the third or even fourth tier if they are found guilty.
However, Maguire confirmed that this would not be possible, with the worst-case scenario being a points deduction that is severe enough that it would put City into the relegation zone, making them a Championship side next season.
He claimed:: “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL. Therefore, it has to be a points deduction.
“If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger.
“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant.
"I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic."
Topics: Manchester City, Premier League, FFP
Ben McCrum