World Cup new format produces fascinating result after analyst runs 100,000 simulations

An analyst has simulated the 2026 FIFA World Cup and revealed how many points each team needs to ensure they progress to the knockout stages.

The 23rd edition of the World Cup is fast approaching, with the opening match between co-hosts Mexico and South Africa just one week away.

Several format and rule changes have been made in preparation for the newly expanded tournament, including increasing the number of participating teams from 32 to 48.

This has allowed several lesser-known nations to qualify, with Curaçao, Cape Verde, Jordan and Uzbekistan set to make their maiden appearances at the tournament.

As expected, former winners Spain, England, Germany, France, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay will feature, with the Netherlands and Portugal also set to take part.

Due to the expansion, an extra knockout round will be played, with 32 of the 48 teams progressing to the new round of 32. The winners of these ties will then move on to the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final, which will take place in New Jersey on July 19.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has already explained why he thinks the expansion to 48 teams was necessary to develop the game on a global scale.

“We had to open it to the world,” he said in January. “And I think it’s the minimum we could do – to open it to more African countries, more Asian countries, because we want football to be strong everywhere.”

How will increased teams impact World Cup?

Analyst Mark O’Haire put this to the test, simulating the tournament 100,000 times before revealing some interesting results.

O’Haire claims that teams who get six points from their three group-stage matches have a 100 per cent chance of making it through to the round of 32.

Those who total four points are also all but guaranteed to progress, with a 99.8 per cent chance of qualification.

Teams that manage three points are more likely than not to qualify for the round of 32, with a 67 per cent chance of progressing, while nations that get two points have only a five per cent chance of qualification.

“The new format is quite forgiving,” O’Haire wrote on social media. “Three points and a -2 goal difference gets you through more often than not.”

I've simulated the World Cup 100,000 times and one thing is already clear about the new 48-team format:

✅ 6 pts = 100% qualify
✅ 4 pts = 99.8% qualify
⚠️ 3 pts = 67% qualify
❌ 2 pts = 5% qualify

The new format is quite forgiving.

3 points and a -2 goal difference gets you… pic.twitter.com/5bruWDcDbD

— Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) June 4, 2026

When a user asked which teams reached the final most often in his simulation, he replied: “Argentina-Spain was the most common final, with Spain winning most often. England semis.”

A fan also questioned the motive behind a group stage if nearly everyone qualified.

"The issue with going to 48 from 32 - something has to give somewhere," said O'Haire. "Preference would have been the best eight group winners get a bye, rest of top two go into the first knockout round. Guess FIFA’s way means more matches and more money."

Here's how fans on social media reacted to the simulation results.

One said: "Harder not to make it out the group stage than making it out. Just the same as qualifying then. Whole tournament is a sham," and a second wrote: "Genuinely, what's the point of having a group stage if pretty much everyone qualifies?"

A third added: "That just shows how little 'jeopardy' there is on the group games, which is why the group games are so dull, compared to only two from four going through and every game being vital. 72 group games to lose just 16/48 teams."